Meteorologist Melissa Frey’s Forecast Discussion:
2013 has been drier than normal, in fact this is the driest start to a year that we have ever recorded in Eugene. July hasn’t helped. We have yet to see a drop of rain this month in Eugene and if we don’t get any by midnight tonight, this will be the first time we’ve been completely dry in the month of July since 2003. Before that you have to go back to 1967, then to 1933. In the past 100 years we’ve been completely dry in July just 8 times.
There is a very slight chance that we could get some rain late tonight. An trough of low pressure has moved over the Pacific Northwest. This is bringing in cooler air along with moisture. This sets up an atmosphere that will support thunderstorms, but you still need something to fuel them. We have that too. Smaller disturbances at the surface are moving in off from the pacific and will help to fuel some thunderstorms this afternoon through Thursday. The best chances for thunderstorms will be over the Cascades and in central Oregon. The best chances for the valley to see thunderstorms will be Wednesday night and Thursday night.
The lightning potential in the area means potential new fire starts. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 11 p.m. Thursday for most of central and southern Oregon, along with most of eastern Douglas and Lane Counties.
Temperatures will be much cooler as we finish out the week. Highs Wednesday will be in the low 80s, Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 70s.
By this weekend we’ll start to clear out and warm up. Highs will be back to the mid 80s this weekend and upper 80s early next week.
Have a great day!
~Meteorologist Melissa Frey