New Quinnipiac poll shows tight Texas Senate race between Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke

A Quinnipiac University poll r...

Posted: Apr 19, 2018 6:02 AM
Updated: Apr 19, 2018 6:02 AM

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows a tight race in Texas between Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Beto O'Rourke for Cruz's Senate seat.

Forty-seven percent of Texas registered voters back Cruz, the Republican incumbent, and 44% favor O'Rourke, the Democratic underdog from El Paso. Both figures fall within the margin of error in the poll, the first major look at the blockbuster Lone Star State race. The election is a crucial midterm race, with Republicans attempting to hold on to, if not grow, a razor-thin 51-49 seat advantage in the Senate. Texas is a historically red state, where Democrats haven't won a statewide election since 1994 and a US Senate race since 1988.

The poll found wide gaps by registered voters' gender, age and race. Cruz led among voters who are white, male and older than 65. O'Rourke had the edge in the black, Hispanic, female and 18 to 34 years old demographics.

Fifty-nine percent of white voters selected Cruz, while 34% chose O'Rourke. Among black and Hispanic voters, O'Rouke led Cruz by 78%-18% and 51%-33%, respectively.

Men backed Cruz by an 11-point margin (51%-40%), and women favored O'Rourke by a 4-point edge (47%-43%).

O'Rourke attracted a younger group of supporters with a 16-point advantage (50%-34%) among the 18- to 34-year-old demographic. Cruz led among voters over 65 years old by 7 points (50%-43%).

O'Rourke also was winning among independent voters, the poll found, drawing 51% of the independent vote compared with Cruz's 37%.

"The key may well be independent voters," said Peter A. Brown, the poll's assistant director. "O'Rourke's 51-37% lead among that group is key to his standing today. But Texas remains a strong GOP state, so O'Rourke will need the independent strength to pull the upset."

Additionally, the poll found that more than half of Texas voters (53%) said they didn't know O'Rourke well enough to form opinions about him.

Trump's role in Texas

A nearly equal amount of Texas voters said they plan to express their support for President Donald Trump (26%) or opposition to him (27%) through their US Senate votes. Forty-three percent said Trump will not be an important factor in their choice in the race.

The poll also found that 43% approve and 52% disapprove of Trump's job performance. The results strongly broke down by partisan lines, with 90% of Texas Democrats disapproving of Trump and 85% of Texas Republicans approving of the way the President is handling his job.

The poll surveyed 1,029 registered Texas voters by telephone April 12-17. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Oregon Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 43793

Reported Deaths: 673
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Multnomah9502166
Marion6024109
Washington599178
Umatilla343545
Clackamas326766
Lane246727
Malheur194938
Jackson17967
Deschutes118513
Yamhill101315
Linn84515
Polk66815
Jefferson60710
Morrow5517
Lincoln51813
Union4842
Benton4636
Klamath4223
Douglas3688
Wasco34916
Hood River2841
Columbia2711
Josephine2703
Coos2601
Clatsop2480
Baker1403
Crook1132
Tillamook740
Curry581
Wallowa492
Lake430
Harney350
Sherman200
Grant120
Gilliam110
Wheeler10
Unassigned00
Eugene
Overcast
43° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 43°
Corvallis
Overcast
46° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 43°
Roseburg
Clear
42° wxIcon
Hi: 64° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 42°
North Bend
Overcast
51° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 51°
KEZI Radar
KEZI Temperatures
KEZI Planner

LATEST FORECAST

Community Events